Jokic, Shai, Giannis and Doncic: the 2026 MVP race is the best ever

How would you describe a player averaging 34.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game in the regular season? Maybe one of the greatest players of all time? A top-5 player in NBA history? Someone who already owns three or four MVPs and is guaranteed to win another one in June?

No… every single one of those guesses would be wrong. Those numbers belong to Luka Doncic, who has never won an MVP and is currently – correctly – sitting fourth in the MVP race.

Unfortunately for the Lakers’ Slovenian star, he happens to be playing in the same era as three other generational players, all of whom are rewriting basketball history in the opening months of the season.

Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are not just leading the 2026 MVP race – they are putting together the three greatest regular seasons in NBA history.

History in motion

In 2005, John Hollinger introduced the Player Efficiency Rating (PER): the first true all-in-one advanced metric (complex to calculate, but highly effective) designed to capture both production and efficiency for individual players.

Like all advanced stats, it isn’t perfect – but it often gets very close to the truth, and most importantly, it isn’t dependent on minutes played (it’s not cumulative). Back in 2005, the players topping this list were the greatest of all time: Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, and David Robinson. Over the last 20 years, however, everything has changed.

Finishing a season with a PER above 31 was essentially a golden ticket into the NBA pantheon, and only Wilt Chamberlain, during his legendary 50-points-per-game season in 1962, had ever crossed the 32 threshold.

This season, though, Jokic, Shai, and Giannis are all well above 33.
Something that has never happened before.

And Luka Doncic? He currently ranks 87th on this list – mainly due to his relatively low shooting percentages from the field. Don’t be fooled by headlines or social-media highlights: when it comes to the MVP, this is a three-man race.

Giannis is still dealing with injury issues and has played just 17 of the Bucks’ first 30 games. Translation: he can only miss four more games for the rest of the season in order to reach the 65-game minimum required for MVP eligibility.

Back to the chart: Shai is where he shouldn’t be: the Canadian is the only point guard in the entire top 15, and the only guard at all alongside Michael Jordan. The closest comparison? Stephen Curry, 2015-16. Yes – at just 27 years old – we’re already talking about one of the greatest players in NBA history.

And if Shai’s numbers are frightening, then don’t look too closely at Nikola Jokic’s – now in the top 15 for the fourth consecutive season – currently leading the NBA in rebounds and assists, while shooting 60% from the field.

This comparison highlights an undeniable – and for some, uncomfortable – truth: we have officially entered the most talented and competitive era in NBA history.

Four of a kind

The numbers are otherworldly, but perhaps the most incredible part is that each of these four players plays the game in a completely different way. “One of a kind,” as they say in the U.S.

A playmaking center who feels like an unsolvable puzzle. A two-way,
6’6″guard with Jordan-level production and efficiency. A point-forward who can score on anyone, from anywhere. And the basketball offspring of Shaq and Garnett.

Each has his own unique traits, and in an NBA moving toward increasing standardization – largely driven by analytics – the league will increasingly be ruled by “mavericks”: players whose blend of physical tools and skill sets simply cannot be replicated.

These fundamental differences are what make them truly unique. The following chart shows how they interpret and exploit space in the offensive half court:

P.S. The midrange isn’t dead – it’s more alive than ever. Thanks, Shai.

Who will win the 2026 MVP?

Traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists may resonate more with fans, but MVP voters tend to dig deeper. Beyond efficiency, they focus heavily on one key concept: value. In other words: how much does a team change when this player is on the floor versus when he isn’t?

To answer that question, the most useful metric is On/Off Net Rating, which measures the average point differential per 100 possessions with a given player on the court.

This is the table of most valuable players to their teams:

Giannis Antetokounmpo began the season on an (almost impossible) mission to drag Milwaukee at least into the playoffs – and the numbers back it up. With him on the floor, the Bucks have the best offense in the NBA (126 points per 100 possessions). Without him, they drop to 29th (108 points per 100 possessions).

Next come Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, nearly identical in impact. The difference lies in the supporting cast: with Jokic, the Nuggets become contenders; with Shai, the Thunder become – by a wide margin – the best team ever.

Had Giannis not missed at least three weeks due to a calf strain, this might have been a three-man race. But that’s not the case. So once again, we brace ourselves for the duel that polarized fans and voters last season as well: Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Shai would have had a much stronger case if Oklahoma City hadn’t run into the Spurs – who shattered the dream of a 74-win season, which would have been an NBA record. Final standings will matter, but Nikola Jokic – especially with these shooting percentages – may soon place his fourth career MVP on the shelf.