NBA Post All Star Break: Here is What to Expect from the Second Part of the 2025/2026 Season

With some 30ish games left to be played by each team, this is when the squads typically change gears and start playing more competitively. If Playoff basketball is the most competitive, post All Star break games are firmly in second place. This is the final stretch in which the teams get to improve their records, catch up to the competition, squeeze in past their closest rivals, and at least get into the Play in spots. On the other end of the spectrum, rebuilding and tanking teams are going to start feeding younger players and developing them for next season. 

The result of all this? While the favorites are gearing up and ramping it up, the so called “silly season” will also start, where things become impossible to predict. It is not clear who the coaches will start, who will get benched and why, which players will see more load management come their way, or who will be shut down entirely to prevent injuries or commit to tanking. Therefore, March and April are two of the most exciting months every season due to the unknown, especially for fans of betting on basketball. All of the NBA bookies will be changing their odds frequently and offering special incentives, like the NBA Halftime Payout promotion on Stake. Here is what little is known and what we can expect from the next couple of months in the Association. 

Biggest Stars Sitting Out Games 

March and April of the NBA season are the crunch stretch where every game carries weight, but not always for the reasons fans might expect. Contenders near the playoff bubble sometimes flip the script on the rest. According to a current playoff urgency index, teams like the Tyrese Maxey led Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets are not resting stars. Instead, they are playing them at heavy minutes because losing could push them into the play in tournament at best. Maxey, for instance, has been logging elite playing time late into games as the Sixers chase a seeding advantage, highlighting how some competitors treat March and April as a finals level grind rather than rest weeks. The 37 year old Kevin Durant has played in 50 games and has no plans of stopping.

At the same time, leaguewide complaints about deliberate losing, i.e., tanking, have reached new heights. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver recently warned teams that purposeful roster manipulation, benching veterans to influence losses, could draw discipline beyond fines, even draft pick penalties. Multiple teams, most notably struggling franchises like the Sacramento Kings and the Utah Jazz, have been fined this season for conduct suggesting intentional losing. That shift toward intentional rest or absence shows up unevenly. Superstars chasing playoff positioning like Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, and Shai Gilgeous Alexander are on track for All NBA accolades and must play games, but these high end MVP caliber players sometimes see minutes restricted late if their teams are secure in seeding or control of a playoff series path. For example, Gilgeous Alexander’s scoring rates are historic even when his fourth quarter minutes are limited. 

On the other end, several struggling teams frequently frustrate their own fans, but also the broader basketball community, by resting experienced stars and veterans not for health, but for draft position. Articles outlining the Lottery Wheel reform idea explicitly list teams resting frontline players and trading away assets to increase lottery odds, showing how March and April can be more about future draft hopes than current wins, as the season is typically viewed as already lost. So, instead of Lauri Markkanen, recently acquired Jaren Jackson Jr., and the veteran center Jusuf Nurkić playing, the Jazz, and others on low ranked rosters, have been playing rookies, bench players, and developing talent heavy minutes as they strategically aim for losses rather than recovery. 

Surprise Performances and Blowouts 

The consequence of stars sitting out games, whether for health or tanking, is plenty of unexpected box score leaders and misleading blowouts. When established contributors are unavailable, bench players often become focal points. Fringe rotation players get extended minutes, two way contract signees find their way into the spotlight, and even recently returned rookies make their long awaited debuts. A current example is Nikola Topic, Serbian point guard for the OKC Thunder, who recently debuted after overcoming serious health setbacks. Despite winning the championship last season, he had yet to appear in an NBA game. His first NBA game at this point of the season is an example of the kinds of personal breakthroughs fans witness late in the schedule. 

Beyond individual debuts, March and April historically showcase rare statistical feats from unexpected players. While we are yet to see this for the 2025-2026 season specifically, past late season outputs, such as triple doubles or franchise records, exemplify how open lineups create opportunity. Players on new teams, like Cam Thomas with the Milwaukee Bucks, or Jeremy Sochan on the NY Knicks, will get ample opportunity to showcase their skills as the season ends. In the former’s case, Giannis is injured and the season is lost, so why not? In the former, the Knicks have title hopes, so creating team chemistry among the squad is prevalent. 

Blowouts are another late season regularity amplified by all of these dynamics. Lottery bound squads without core players often lose by large margins, while contenders with uneven rotations can collapse unexpectedly. Two tanking teams playing can either be a very low scoring affair or a game where both teams surpass 120 or 130 points easily. Meanwhile, even mid tier teams with playoff dreams occasionally deliver runaway victories that contradict their seeding anxiety, further complicating predictive models. In such an environment, both bettors and analysts find trend data less useful because lineup decisions and strategic matchups matter more than traditional power rankings. Therefore, follow the news more frequently and add a deeper layer of research before every bet. 

NBA Predictions and Outright Odds

With about a third of the total 82 game total remaining post the All Star Weekend break, there is no better time to make an educated guess regarding the eventual champion and the recipients of season ending individual awards. A lot of things are already known; fans and experts can agree on who has overachieved, who has underachieved, and which teams are the favorites, and the 65 game rule for accolades comes into play. Therefore, now is a great time to check out the latest outright odds and predictions for the NBA championship, the MVP Award, the Rookie of the Year Award, and the rest of the career defining honors.

When it comes to the outright championship odds, Stake.com sees the defending champions, Oklahoma City Thunder, as the most likely squad to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2026. And it is not closed right now. OKC has 2.30 odds as the favorites, and are followed by the Denver Nuggets with 6.00 odds. That is a huge disparity between the top two teams, but the situation is even worse when the Eastern Conference teams enter the fray. In third, we find the Cleveland Cavaliers, but their odds are only 12.00. Fourth are the New York Knicks, with 14.00. Rounding up the top five are the San Antonio Spurs with 15.00. The numbers do not lie. If anything, they paint the picture perfectly in displaying how OKC is in a league of its own.

When it comes to the most prestigious individual award, the regular season Most Valuable Player, things are, again, similar to last year. The reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous Alexander of the OKC Thunder, leads the sweepstakes with 1.49 odds, but he has been helped greatly by the competition and their unfortunate injuries. Right behind him is Nikola Jokic with 4.00 odds, but he can only afford to miss one more game to be eligible for the award, which will be tough. The Canadian and Serbian superstars are followed by Cade Cunningham in third with 15.00 odds, Luka Doncic with 21.00, and Victor Wembanyama with 41.00. SGA also leads the Finals MVP odds with 2.15. 

The Rookie of the Year race is all but over, and unless one of the players who still have a slim chance does not go on an absolute rampage to close the season, the expected result will occur. The number one draft pick, Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks, has it absolutely locked with 1.15 odds. Following him in second place is the Charlotte Hornets sharpshooter Kon Knueppel with 4.50. And that is the race. Even the third best, VJ Edgecombe of the Philadelphia 76ers, only has 66 odds to capture the once in a lifetime award. That is how much Flagg was better than his peers in his first professional season.

There is a similar story unravelling in the Defensive Player of the Year Award odds. After failing to win it in his first two seasons due to injuries and missing out on the minimum amount of games, the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama seems like he is going to finally do it. The first of many? Probably. Right now, the French Alien has 1.40 odds to win it, and is followed by his arch rival and nemesis, Chet Holmgren of the OKC Thunder.  Rudy Gobert, Wemby’s fellow countryman, is third with 15.00 odds. 

The Sixth Man of the Year Award is led by Naz Reid with 2.90 and Keldon Johnson with 4.25, while the Most Improved Player looks to be Deni Avdija’s to lose as he has 1.83 odds and is in front of Jalen Johnson with 3.40. Anthony Edwards is the first in the Clutch Player of the Year rankings with 2.20 odds, and Detroit Pistons’ J. B. Bickerstaff should win Coach of the Year with 1.67 odds and a considerable margin over his competitors. 

NBA Second Half of the Season FAQs 

1. Why is the post All Star break stretch so important?

The games after the break usually determine playoff seeding. Teams often have 20 to 30 games left, and small win/loss swings can dramatically change standings before the NBA Playoffs.

2. Which teams historically dominate after the break?

Championship caliber teams often surge late. For example, the Golden State Warriors (2015/2016) went on a massive post break run to finish with a 73-9 record, still the best in NBA history.

3. Do superstar players improve statistically after the break?

Often, yes. Stars like LeBron James have historically elevated their scoring and efficiency post break as teams ramp up intensity for playoff positioning.

4. Why do some contenders struggle after the break?

Fatigue and minor injuries start to catch up. Teams with multiple All Stars, like the Los Angeles Lakers during heavy title contending years, sometimes manage minutes more cautiously and rest their players strategically.

5. What is the “schedule advantage” factor?

After the break, the strength of the schedule becomes crucial. Teams fighting for seeding closely monitor matchups against rivals in competitive conferences like the Western Conference. The fewer back to backs and road trips, the better the schedule. 

6. How do trade deadline moves impact the second half?

The trade deadline typically happens just before the break, meaning newly acquired players must integrate quickly. The Toronto Raptors added key pieces in 2019 that fueled their late season momentum before winning a title.

7. What is “load management” after the All Star break?

Contenders often rest star players strategically to preserve health for the postseason. The San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers notably used this approach with star players in recent seasons, and got fined repeatedly for it. Tanking teams also rest their players to lose more games. 

8. Do MVP races shift?

Absolutely. Strong finishes can seal awards. Nikola Jokić has strengthened MVP campaigns with dominant late season performances in at least two of his three awards.

9. Which teams typically surge late?

Rebuilding teams sometimes makes unexpected pushes after the break as chemistry improves. The Oklahoma City Thunder surprised many observers with strong late season play a few seasons ago, which proved fruitful to their success.

10. Has a team ever missed the playoffs after a strong first half?

Yes, late collapses do happen, but not that often. The Dallas Mavericks (2022-2023 season) slid down the standings after the break and ultimately missed the playoffs despite high expectations.