NBA MVP 2026: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic at Disqualification Risk

This year, the NBA MVP race may be decided more in the training room than on the hardwood. It’s not an exaggeration: under the minimum games rule, once a player surpasses 17 absences, he is automatically out of contention. At that point, even historic numbers no longer matter.

And today, the two leading candidates are dangerously close to that line.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic at Risk of MVP Ineligibility

The betting favorite remains Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, leader of the Oklahoma City Thunder and last season’s award winner. Odds still list him as the man to beat. Yet his candidacy isn’t as secure as it appears.

Sidelined since February 3 with an abdominal strain, Gilgeous-Alexander has already missed 11 games. To remain eligible, he must play at least 16 of the final 22 regular-season games. Otherwise, even a dominant statistical campaign wouldn’t be enough.

The situation is even more delicate for Nikola Jokic, the cornerstone of the Denver Nuggets. The Serbian center has already accumulated 16 absences: two more missed games would automatically eliminate him from the race. A paradox, considering that when he’s on the floor, he continues to produce MVP-level numbers.

The question, then, is simple: does it make sense for an individual award to be determined more by the medical calendar than by on-court impact?

The New NBA Rule and Its Consequences on the MVP Race

The introduction of the minimum games requirement was designed to reduce “load management“. The goal is to reward availability and protect the competitiveness of the regular season.

But there’s an obvious side effect: a non-serious injury, occurring at the wrong time of year, can erase months of technical dominance.

A skeptic might argue that availability is part of a player’s value. If you’re not on the floor, you can’t be the most valuable. It’s a logical argument — but does it always hold up? Or does it risk turning the award into a purely arithmetic matter?

Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown: The Betting Market Shifts

The uncertainty surrounding the two favorites has reopened the field. In recent weeks, the hottest name has been Cade Cunningham, leader of the Detroit Pistons. His odds have plummeted, moving from long shot to third choice at major sportsbooks.

According to bookmakers, Cunningham has attracted more bets than anyone else over the past week. And it’s not just narrative-driven: the team’s growth and the point guard’s central role are convincing many bettors that he could capitalize on potential high-profile exclusions.

A different story for Jaylen Brown (recently praised by LeBron James) of the Boston Celtics: his odds have lengthened significantly, a sign that the market has cooled on early enthusiasm.

Further back, but still monitored, are Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs – who is nearing the threshold with 13 missed games – along with Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) and Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves), names once considered long shots but suddenly back on bettors’ radar.

Media Straw Poll: Shai Remains the Favorite

A recent ESPN straw poll of 100 media members clearly indicates Gilgeous-Alexander as the top choice. The conditional, however, is unavoidable: “if eligible.”

And that detail is precisely what makes this race one of the most unusual in recent years.

Because if the NBA MVP award is meant to crown the best player of the season, today the real question is different: does absolute peak performance matter more, or sustained availability?

In the coming weeks, it won’t just be points or triple-doubles that make the difference. It will be the schedule. And perhaps, the body.