Are the Celtics NBA title contenders with Tatum back?
Does Jayson Tatum’s return truly change the Celtics’ ambitions? A breakdown of numbers, limitations, and playoff outlook
Are the Celtics title contenders with Tatum? That question had already been circulating before his return, although after seeing him back on the floor we can start forming a clearer picture of Boston’s ambitions, especially when factoring in the other contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Averaging 19 points, over 8 rebounds and 3 assists, Jayson Tatum is approaching the 10-game mark this season after making a rapid comeback from a serious Achilles tendon injury.
It’s worth noting that returning in less than a year was far from guaranteed, and that Boston used the offseason to reshape the roster through a kind of spending review. With the postseason approaching, it’s time to take stock – and there isn’t much time left to project what the Celtics can realistically expect from this season.
From tanking to contender? The Celtics’ path
The question is straightforward: does adding Tatum to White and Brown – despite losing Holiday, Porzingis and Horford – make Boston a contender in an uncertain Eastern Conference?
Right now, the answer largely depends on the star’s durability and consistency, as well as the level of intensity he’ll be able to sustain in the playoffs.
During the offseason, the outlook was very different. The similarities with the Pacers – without Haliburton due to a similar injury—were clear. Boston, with a cap-balancing approach, seemed headed toward tanking.
Things have played out differently, thanks in part to the work of coach Mazzulla, who maintained the team’s principles and structure while confidently integrating players like Scheierman, Queta, Walsh and rookie Gonzales.
Meanwhile:
- Brown has increased his offensive workload
- White has effectively managed both ends of the floor
All of this has created a solid bridge between the team’s philosophy and its new personnel. It’s only natural, then, to think that with Tatum, the group could take another step forward.
What Tatum is adding to the Celtics
Playing around 30 minutes per game right away, Tatum has contributed to 6 wins in the last 8 games.
Boston is battling the Knicks for the No. 2 seed in the East, with additional room to climb also due to the uncertainty surrounding Cunningham’s injury.
In these early outings, despite some readjustment struggles, Tatum is impacting three key areas from a playoff perspective:
- Improved defensive performance: With him on the floor, the Celtics’ defensive rating ranks among the best in the league (103 points allowed per 100 possessions). His impact on the defensive end remains crucial despite returning from a major injury
- Increased defensive rebounding: Boston grabs 78.2% of defensive rebounds with Tatum on the court. A significant number for a team that had struggled in the frontcourt. His 28.9% defensive rebound rate would place him among the league’s top bigs
- Greater three-point threat: Even without elite efficiency, his presence creates spacing and open looks thanks to his offensive gravity, a key element in Mazzulla’s system
What hasn’t gone as well for Tatum
Even accounting for the context of his return, there are two areas that have negatively impacted his performance:
- Declining shooting percentages: Tatum is attempting over 9 threes per game but shooting just 29%, with a career-low true shooting percentage. The sample size remains small and could improve with rhythm
- Limited free-throw attempts: Only 3.4 free throws per game, despite nearly 10 drives per contest. This is likely tied to managing his body post-injury
Both issues appear more related to conditioning than structural limitations.
Can the Celtics win the NBA title?
Thinking about an NBA title remains complicated, especially when comparing Boston to deeper rosters like the Thunder, Spurs or Nuggets.
What last season taught us is that nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs: it takes health, mental toughness and consistency.
Tatum’s return makes Boston a dangerous, pressure-free team – often a risky combination.
The real question then becomes: can the Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
Considering Tatum’s impact and the potential for improvement as he regains rhythm, the answer is that Boston can seriously make a push.