NBA MIP Race: The Alexander-Walker Case

When we think about the NBA Most Improved Player award and quickly scan the players who have made the biggest leap, it’s hard not to consider Nickeil Alexander-Walker among the frontrunners.

MIP History: Why It Doesn’t Favor Nickeil

Recent winners of the award, however, point toward different player profiles, considering the success of Julius Randle in 2021, Ja Morant in 2022, Lauri Markkanen in 2023 and Tyrese Maxey in 2024 – all players on the verge of superstar status at the time.

In short, the improvement that gets rewarded is often that final leap.

Last year, though, to be fair, the win by NAW’s current teammate – Dyson Daniels – came at the expense of a Cade Cunningham (who actually finished third behind Ivica Zubac) who entered with a higher profile. Both in terms of performance, impact, and centrality on a surprising team.

MIP Criteria: Why It’s Hard to Predict

The issue with this award lies in criteria that are never clearly defined, making them difficult to apply consistently over time — and therefore hard to predict.

It’s no coincidence that alongside Shai’s cousin in the race are teammates like Jalen Johnson, Jalen Duren, and Deni Avdija: three players selected as All-Stars who will likely end up on an All-NBA Team.

Still, in trying to understand whether Nickeil can realistically contend for the trophy – at least finishing in the top three – it makes sense to take a more practical look at his seasonal growth. Which is also key to explaining the surprising rise of the Atlanta Hawks, especially in the second half of the season.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3&D: The Original Prototype

Back in 2019, coming out of Virginia as a rookie, NAW was seen as an excellent three-level scorer and a versatile athlete with elite defensive instincts, though with offensive limitations tied to playmaking – not so much in ball-handling, but in handling defensive pressure.

In reality, what looked like a classic 3-and-D prototype with a best-case scenario comparable to Trevor Ariza struggled to gain credibility over his first four seasons.

Split between New Orleans and Utah, he showed flashes but never earned enough trust to be considered a core piece worth keeping.

Often included in trade packages as little more than filler, he eventually landed in Minnesota, where he established himself as a defensive specialist off the second unit, crucial to maintaining a high level on that end of the floor for a team that still builds its identity there.

Atlanta Hawks and Alexander-Walker: The Turning Point

After two full seasons and as many Conference Finals appearances, Alexander-Walker was due for a recognition contract, likely tied to a bigger role regardless of team ambitions – and he was signed by Atlanta.

Minnesota, after extending Naz Reid and Julius Randle, simply couldn’t match the offer presented to him.

On paper, his role on a team seemingly built around the Trae Young / Kristaps Porzingis axis wasn’t much different from his time with the Wolves: supporting defensive ace Dyson Daniels in covering for Trae, he could function as a small forward alternating with Zaccharie Risacher, with occasional chances to handle the ball when the starting point guard sat.

Because, in theory, behind the franchise player the Hawks didn’t have a reliable ball-handler, unless they entrusted playmaking duties to a more transition-oriented Jalen Johnson (still a frontcourt player).

In reality, however, Quin Snyder’s team functioned better when that foundational axis was absent – and Alexander-Walker immediately broke out offensively, alternating with Johnson as a primary ball-handler.

In fact, they alternated in pick-and-roll actions, creating open threes when spacing out as screeners.

Trading away Trae Young (and later moving on from Kristaps Porzingis) became the logical step to embrace a new identity – one that delivered strong results in the second half of the season.

Alexander-Walker Stats: The Offensive Breakout

Looking at Alexander-Walker’s numbers as a representation of the “new” Hawks is the easiest thing to do.

While it’s true that their high-pace system is primarily driven by Johnson (but not only), it’s also clear that his production isn’t drastically different from last season’s strong stretch before injuries slowed him down.

The approach of Shai’s cousin, on the other hand, hasn’t changed from his Minneapolis experience; and even the increase in minutes (about eight more per game) doesn’t fully explain the statistical jump.

Simply put, the Hawks elevated his role by putting the ball in his hands more – unlike past attempts that produced limited and inefficient results.

Now, NAW has added clear self-creation off the dribble, increasing his usage as a point guard in both up-tempo situations and the Hawks’ two-man game.

All without abandoning his identity as a catch-and-shoot threat, often positioning himself in the corners when not directly handling in transition or after the initial pass.

The result: over 15 shot attempts per game (compared to 7.5 last year), including 8.1 from beyond the arc – converted at nearly 40% efficiency.

That translates to over 20 points, nearly 4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game – all career highs – along with 1.3 steals.

And importantly, his defensive responsibilities – which made him such a valuable perimeter stopper with the Wolves – remain unchanged.

Perfectly aligned with Snyder’s philosophy, which often features five athletes of varying sizes capable of running, switching across multiple positions, and applying constant ball pressure.

Alexander-Walker MIP: Does He Really Deserve It?

So, does he deserve the MIP award?

Briefly and concisely, the answer is yes.

Because regardless of how you interpret the award, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has elevated his performance by nearly doubling his production without losing his core identity, while showing unexpected growth on the offensive end.

And in doing so, he helped transform the Atlanta Hawks, finally moving beyond the Trae Young era toward more dynamic – and therefore more modern – lineups.

Whether award voters will see it the same way remains to be seen.