O’Neal and Barkley shock everyone: no Thunder in the Finals
Surprising predictions from the Inside the NBA studio: zero confidence in OKC at the most crucial stage of the season. The picks from Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley
With the 2026 NBA Playoffs just underway, predictions are starting to pile up. Still, the ones delivered by Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley have already sparked debate: neither sees the Oklahoma City Thunder reaching the NBA Finals, despite owning the league’s best record (64-18) and entering as favorites.
A strong stance that raises questions about how ready this team truly is to deliver on the biggest stage.
NBA Playoffs 2026: Shaquille O’Neal’s predictions
For Shaquille O’Neal, the picture is clear: the Thunder fall short before the final stage.
Conference Finals according to Shaq
- East: Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks
- West: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
Projected NBA Finals
- San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks
A pick that feels like a historical throwback: it would be a rematch of the 1999 Finals, when the Spurs captured the title.
O’Neal is betting heavily on the growth of the New York Knicks, who already reached the Conference Finals last season. In his view, the next step is within reach.
On the other side, everything comes down to the matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs: the Spurs are one of the few teams that truly challenged OKC during the year (4-1 in the head-to-head). That’s no small detail.
Charles Barkley doubles down: Cavaliers to the Finals
Charles Barkley also goes against the grain, with even bolder picks.
Conference Finals according to Barkley
- East: Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- West: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
Projected NBA Finals
- Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland Cavaliers
The real surprise? The Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals. A prediction few share, considering their seed and the tougher projected path.
Barkley, however, believes in it, going as far as predicting an upset over the Boston Celtics.
In the West, the script remains similar: the Thunder fall short again. This time at the hands of the Denver Nuggets, despite a favorable regular-season record (3-1 for OKC).
Inside the NBA divided: not a single vote for the Thunder in the Finals
The most surprising takeaway comes when looking at the rest of the analysts:
- Kenny Smith follows O’Neal on the Conference Finals but sees the Pistons beating the Knicks
- Ernie Johnson aligns with Barkley, with one twist: Celtics in the Finals instead of the Cavaliers
The result? Zero out of four predictions have the Thunder reaching the NBA Finals.
These predictions don’t settle the debate – they open it. Because while OKC has the numbers of a favorite, there’s still a sense that one bad matchup could change everything. And in the playoffs, matchups matter more than any record.