Duren: why turning down $200 million would have been crazy

$200 million guaranteed right away, or a $9.6 million season to try to land a max contract in the summer of 2027? That was the crossroads facing Jalen Duren before signing with the Detroit Pistons. Two paths that looked completely different, but that, after doing the math, would have brought the big man to almost the same amount of money over the next five years.

Detroit had put a fully guaranteed five-year, $200 million contract on the table. Duren could have turned it down, accepted the $9.6 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027.

An extremely risky choice, but one with a huge potential reward: reaching the open market with no restrictions and trying to secure a new max contract.

Duren, the difference was just $1.2 Million

This is where the numbers get interesting. By accepting Detroit’s offer, Duren would make roughly $34.5 million in 2026/27, with his salary gradually rising to $45.5 million in the final season, bringing the total to $200 million.

Under the second scenario, he would instead play this season for $9.6 million, then aim for a four-year max contract with another team in the summer of 2027.

Assuming he actually managed to secure the maximum, the math would look like this: $9.6 million this year, followed by approximately $44 million, $46.2 million, $48.4 million and $50.6 million over the next four seasons. The total? About $198.8 million.

In other words, after five years Duren still would have made roughly $1.2 million less than the offer already guaranteed by the Pistons.

And that is where the gamble became complicated. To get to that $198.8 million, Duren would have had to give up nearly $25 million immediately, play an entire season without the security of a long-term contract and hope to reach the following summer healthy and with enough value to convince someone to offer him the max.

With Detroit, meanwhile, the $200 million was already there and fully guaranteed.

The problem with Detroit went beyond money

If it had only been about money, then, the choice would have seemed fairly simple. But during negotiations Duren reportedly became increasingly frustrated with the Pistons, to the point that some reports said he felt disrespected by the way the talks had been handled.

One of the main points of contention also involved weight-related clauses included in previous offers. Detroit reportedly removed that issue from the final proposal: the $200 million offer no longer included clauses of that kind, and the entire amount was guaranteed.

Duren was therefore facing a choice that went far beyond a simple “$200 million versus $9.6 million.” The qualifying offer would have given him the chance to take full control of his future and choose a new team in 2027, but at the cost of taking on enormous risk.

In the end, the math probably helped a lot: risking an entire season for the chance to earn, in the best-case scenario, essentially the same amount of money was not a particularly appealing bet. Duren chose the $200 million already guaranteed by Detroit and brought one of the summer’s most tense negotiations to a close.