Scoot Henderson: The next great NBA leader or a bust in the making?

You’re watching a young point guard put up 39 points against seasoned NBA players, displaying the exact athleticism and floor intelligence that had Russell Westbrook comparisons from scouts. Then you watch the same kid battle through a 21.4% three-point mark and wonder if you’re observing the next great floor general or another draft buzz tale gone bad.

Scoot Henderson’s NBA career is the personification of this same contradiction. Drafted third overall in 2023, with expectations that would have made him the first pick in any other class, Henderson is currently at a juncture that will determine if he joins the elite or another name on the bust list.

The Foundation: Why Expectations Soared So High

Henderson was not just the next big thing; he was a phenomenon. At 17, he was the youngest player in G League history, immediately averaging a 16.5 point, 6.5 assist mark against professionals. His pyrotechnics against Victor Wembanyama’s team, in which he scored 28 points and nine assists in a one-on-one show, cemented many people’s notion that they were witnessing an all-time great status.

The physical tools tell you why scouts oozed over his upside. A 6’2″ frame with an awe-inspiring 6’9″ wingspan, Henderson pairs elite burst with the kind of explosive vertical leap potential that makes highlight reels. His first step is among the best in the league, and he absorbs contact like a guy much bigger than his physicality suggests.

But what really distinguished Henderson from other prospects was professional experience. While most incoming rookie players arrive from college competition, Henderson prepared for two full seasons against veteran men, scrapping their way through their basketball lives. That seasoning, in theory, should have given him a definitive edge when it comes to NBA acclimation.

The Reality Check: When Promise Meets Performance

So why hasn’t Henderson asserted himself as so many forecasted? The numbers tell a sobering story you can’t help but ignore.

His 2024-25 campaign figures, 12.7 points and 5.1 assists per game, are meager production for a third overall selection in his second year. Worse still, he started only 10 of 66 games, which suggests his coaches weren’t completely confident in his readiness to handle first-string duty.

The shooting struggles are the biggest red flag. Henderson’s 21.4% three-pointer is not just bad, it’s objectively awful for a starting-level point guard. Teams have begun to exploit this poor weakness by sagging off and going under on every screen, essentially daring him to shoot over them. When defenses can disrespect your three-point threat, it really limits your ability to create scoring chances for teammates.

His 5.5-to-3.3 assist-to-turnover ratio also points to fundamental decision-making issues. Elite point guards typically have ratios at or around 2.5-to-1 or better. And remember his infamous minus-58 game against Miami as a rookie, the worst single-game plus-minus in NBA history. 

The Market Perspective: What Betting Odds Reveal

Sporting markets are apt to make brutally realistic assessments of player value, free of sentimental narratives to focus on probable likelihoods. Henderson’s current future award odds reflect this uncertainty, with most books having fairly long odds for him being an All-Star in the near future.

When NBA prospect analyses are under scrutiny from every angle, many users turn to bet365 sister sites to compare detailed odds and market opinions due to the fact that these websites congregate different perceptions of up-and-coming talent value. Market analysis tends to agree with what advanced metrics show: Henderson has high ceilings but low floors that have greatly diminished.

The lines actually see Henderson as a high-risk player with a lot of upside, precisely what you’d expect of a player whose developmental path remains a question mark.

Historical Context: The Point Guard Development Curve

Point guard is arguably the most difficult position to project, and NBA history holds both encouraging and cautionary examples for Henderson’s situation.

Look to recent high-draft point guards who didn’t work out early on. Markelle Fultz, the 2017 first overall selection, had his own struggles with shooting and confidence. Dante Exum, the fifth overall pick in 2014, had athletic flashes but couldn’t remain healthy or find consistency. Dennis Smith Jr. had elite athleticism but never learned to see the court well enough to sustain long-term success.

But you’ll also be able to find success stories that will provide Henderson hope. Ja Morant took huge strides in his third and fourth years. De’Aaron Fox didn’t hit his elite level until year four. Point guards typically take 3-4 years to fully grasp NBA pace and defensive complexity.

The biggest difference often amounts to marginal gains in specific areas. If Henderson can raise his percentage on three-pointers to a mere 33-35%, suddenly his capability to drive is all the more intimidating. If he can improve his assist-to-turnover ratio by as little as 15-20%, he’s an eligible starting point guard.

Signs of Hope: The Positive Indicators

Henderson has not gone back on step in every area; really, he’s made huge strides in several. His shot selection has improved immensely, particularly his ability to take catch-and-shoot threes rather than trying to force difficult shots off the dribble. He is developing a good lob connection with Portland’s bigs, showing improved court vision in half-court sets.

Most importantly, he hasn’t lost faith despite having a poor start. Players who let poor starts erode self-belief won’t pick themselves up. Henderson continues to attack the rim incessantly and finish in dominance, suggesting his mental stance remains unaffected.

At 21 years old, he’s still in the infancy stages of both his physique and his basketball career. A lot of point guards don’t peak until age 24-26, giving Henderson a lot of leeway for growth.

The Verdict: Too Soon for Ultimate Judgment

You shouldn’t count out Henderson just yet, but you can’t ignore the red flags, either. His third and fourth years will do a lot to determine whether he is a franchise-building block or a role-player ceiling.

The most logical estimate has Henderson as a solid NBA contributor with All-Star upside if everything breaks right for him. His pro resume and athleticism provide him with a higher floor than many busts, but his shot and decision-making problems prevent him from being a certainty.

Instead of inquiring if Henderson will be a star, you should ask if he’ll reach his high potential. The difference between those two might decide if you’ll look back and remember him as the next big point guard or another example of how potential is not always production.